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Release Archives | International Economic Indices August 2011
For Immediate Release
September 2, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s U.S. Economic Index Declines
During Last 10 Days of August;
The Canadian Index Increases
Arlington, Texas—Amid fears of a double-dip recession, the Decision Analyst
U.S. Economic Index moved from 95 in July to 93 in August 2011. The Index has
been flat to slightly declining over the past 8 or 9 months, suggesting economic
sluggishness for the balance of 2011 and into the first part of 2012. Canada and
Mexico were the only countries surveyed to see an increase in their Index scores.
Canada increased from 93 in July to 96 in August, and Mexico increased from 92
in July to 93 in August. The Decision Analyst Economic Indices are leading indicators
for their respective countries (tending to foreshadow overall economic activity
by 6 to 12 months in each respective country). Here is the U.S. Economic Index
for the past 3 years:
“The tracking data continue to tell the same story, the story of a fragile
economy that is barely able to hold its head above water. The predicted slow pace
of economic expansion means that the economy will be vulnerable to shocks and
bumps—that could easily trigger another official recession,” said
Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “The Index is predicting
a no-growth to slow-growth economy for the fall of 2011 and the first half of
2012, with a substantial risk of a double-dip recession. High unemployment, government
cutbacks (at the local, federal, and global levels), tight corporate purse strings,
a depressed housing market, and uncertainty continue to slow economic momentum.”
“The high risk of a financial meltdown in Europe within the next 12 months
continues to pose a huge risk for the world economy, as the European Union struggles
to deal with excessive debt and fragile economies. These risks could dampen world
economic growth in 2012,” said Thomas.
International Economic Indices
Even though the emerging countries of China and India have high Index scores
for August; they both have declined this month. China has declined from 125 in
July to 120 in August, and India has declined from 118 in July to 113 in August.
Meanwhile in Europe, France has declined 7 points from 80 in July to 73 in August,
and the United Kingdom has declined from 82 in July to 79 in August.
The Decision Analyst Economic Indices for the individual countries for the
past 10 years are below.
The Index numbers for Argentina, Australia, Chile, China, Colombia, Germany,
Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, and Spain are a 3-month moving average to
smooth out month-to-month fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the
current month with the 2 previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model.
The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed,
as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective
countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month
in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany,
India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United
Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and
analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development,
advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization.
For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and automotive industries.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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