Home | Press Room | Press Release Archives | Economic Index November 2011

---

For Immediate Release
December 7, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166

Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index dipped 1 point from 94 in October 2011 to 93 in November 2011. The general trend of the U.S. Economic Index over the past 12 months has been downward. The Index's downtrend is suggesting continued economic weakness in the first half of 2012 and probably the second half as well.

The U.S. Economic Index tends to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months. Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 3 years:

Below is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 10 years:

“A look at the 10-year chart above shows that the economic recovery has been anemic. The trend of the U.S. Index is suggesting very slow economic growth in 2012, or perhaps no growth at all,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. "The U.S. economy continues to face strong headwinds. Very high unemployment (as high as 20% if all of the discouraged workers are counted) is reducing consumer buying power and consumer confidence. Lack of credit and lack of capital for small businesses are major barriers to growth. High debt levels, public and private, are also reducing the funds available for spending and investment. Lastly, uncertainty created by gridlock in Washington and indecision in Europe is making major corporations reluctant to make strategic investments," said Thomas.

Census Divisions

The West South Central Division appears to have the strongest economy with an Index of 98. The East South Central and the Mountain Divisions appear to be the weakest—with scores of 88 and 89, respectively. (See map below.)

International Index

The table below compares the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices for other countries. In Europe, Germany and the Russian Federation are tied for the highest score of 99, while France is at the bottom with a score of 76. In South America, Brazil’s Index is 125 (a rapidly expanding economy) and in Asia, China’s Index is 120.

Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.

For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011

Visit our Logos & Images page for photographs and logos, if needed.