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Release Archives | International Economic Indices November 2011
For Immediate Release
December 7, 2011
Contact: Cristi Allen
callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 817-640-6166
Decision Analyst’s Economic Indices for the
U.S. Signals Weakness,
France Declines in November
Arlington, Texas—The Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index dipped 1 point
from 94 in October 2011 to 93 in November 2011. The general trend of the U.S.
Economic Index over the past 12 months has been downward. The Index's downtrend
is suggesting continued economic weakness in the first half of 2012 and probably
the second half as well. The Economic Index for France declined 5 points from
76 in October 2011 to 71 in November 2011.
The Decision Analyst Economic Indices are leading indicators for their respective
countries and tend to foreshadow overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months in
each respective country. Here is the U.S. Economic Index for the past 3 years:
“A look at the 10-year chart above shows that the economic recovery has
been anemic. The trend of the U.S. Index is suggesting very slow economic growth
in 2012, or perhaps no growth at all,” said Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO
of Decision Analyst. "The U.S. economy continues to face strong headwinds.
Very high unemployment (as high as 20% if all of the discouraged workers are counted)
is reducing consumer buying power and consumer confidence. Lack of credit and
lack of capital for small businesses are major barriers to growth. High debt levels,
public and private, are also reducing the funds available for spending and investment.
Lastly, uncertainty created by gridlock in Washington and indecision in Europe
is making major corporations reluctant to make strategic investments," said
Thomas.
International Economic Indices
The graphs below compare the U.S. Economic Index to Decision Analyst’s
Economic Indices for other countries. China, Brazil, and India appear to have
the strongest economies. In Europe, Germany and the Russian Federation are tied
for the highest score at 101, while France is at the bottom with a score of 71.
In South America, Argentina has the lowest Index with a score of 93. Australia's
Index is 90.
The Decision Analyst Economic Indices for the individual countries for the past
10 years are below.
The Index numbers for Argentina, Australia, Chile, China, Colombia, Germany,
Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, and Spain are a 3-month moving average to
smooth out month-to-month fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the
current month with the 2 previous months.
Methodology
The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of
several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The online
survey is conducted the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated
from nine different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model.
The result is a snapshot of current economic activity in each country surveyed,
as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective
countries. Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month
in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany,
India, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United
Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.
Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends
to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a slow-growth
economy, and near or below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These
guidelines vary by country, however.
About Decision Analyst
Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a global marketing research and
analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development,
advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization.
For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients
throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail,
technology, medical, and automotive industries.
For additional information contact:
Cristi Allen
Publicity
Email: callen@decisionanalyst.com
Phone: 1-800-ANALYSIS (262-5974) or 1-817-640-6166
Address: 604 Avenue H East
Arlington, TX 76011
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